For example, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha, a widely used method for deriving the. But when examined more carefully, the approach is actually rather intuitive. Seismic hazard and risk analysis engineering monographs. Any physical phenomena associated with an earthquake e. Ezfrisk is a software package used by engineers and seismologists to perform sitespecific earthquake hazard analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha psha is the most used method. The goal of seismic hazard analysis sha is to state the probability that something of concern will occur given one or more earthquakes. Seismic hazard and seismic risk are fundamentally different. The variation of hazard results provides an example of the sensitivity to. Appendix d probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, while the deterministic seismic hazard analysis is. Such software also allow for critical comparisons to be made between the different technical solutions implemented, in order to. Developments in seismic hazard analysis over the last few decades are.
Infraterra personnel are experts in the development of sitespecific ground motions using probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. Unified hazard tool please do not use this tool to obtain ground motion parameter values for the design code reference documents covered by the u. For example, one might want to know the probability that peak ground acceleration the imt will exceed 0. Seismotectonicgeologic hazards zoning of iran recently, scientists. An overview of developments in seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard is a natural phenomenon such as ground shaking, fault rupture, or soil liquefaction that is generated by an.
Comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of nuclear. This does mean that this type of seismic hazard analysis is a much more major undertaking than in the methodologies described previously. Quickly retrieve site structural design parameters specified by asce 710 and asce 716, including wind, seismic, snow, ice, rain, flood, and tsunami. In order to assess risk to a structure from earthquake shaking, we must first determine the annual. In the past, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha has been performed by researchers to assess the level of seismic hazard in kuala lumpur, malaysia and its vicinity. Seismic hazard analysis seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular area. The deterministic and probabilistic formulations of seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard analysis with randomly located sources. Your seismic hazard analysis module license comes with area, fault, and gridded seismic sources needed to analyze ground motion hazard in one region of the world. Why is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha still. The purpose of this document is to discuss the calculations involved in psha, and. Usgs software tools for sitespecific ground motion hazard analysis.
Central and eastern united states seismic source characterization for nuclear facilities. Earthquake hazard map showing peak ground accelerations having a 2 percent probability of being exceeded in 50 years, for a firm rock site. The main purpose of seismic hazard analysis is to provide parameters for estimating seismic risk. Regarding the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the ground shaking maps indicated that the southeastern part of the mmcm and northwestern part of phayao provinces were high hazard areas.
Graizerkalkan 2015 ground motion prediction equation gmpe is designed to predict peakground acceleration and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration response ordinates for shallowcrustal continental earthquakes to be used in earthquakeengineering applications including probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha has become a fundamental tool in. Joint ictpiaea advanced workshop on earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities zhenming wang 30 november 4 december, 2009 kentucky geological survey university of kentucky lexington usa. This computer program makes probabilistic seismic hazard calculations at sites affected by earthquakes occurring on faults which are defined by the user as a series of line segments. Wong seismic hazards group urs corporation 33 broadway, suite 800 oakland, ca 94612. Software to download usgs earthquake hazard program. Ezfrisk technical capabilities seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard article about seismic hazard by the free. Provides the technical background needed to fully appreciate what goes into seismic hazard analysis and thus to better understand the. Geological survey peter powers, research geophysicist, u. The first stage in hazard analysis is to identify the types of hazards. Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. Ezfrisk software for earthquake ground motion estimation.
Seismic hazard is the hazard associated with potential earthquakes in a particular area, and a seismic hazard map shows the relative hazards in different areas. Probablistic seismic hazard analysis psha and the detemininstic seismic hazard analysis dsha. Seismology, seismic data analysis, hazard assessment and. Elsevier engineering geology 40 1995 1 7 engneern giogy opinion paper deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures ellis l. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis without the ergodic. Design engineering, engineering division, update of the seismic hazard at the department of energy national nuclear security administration y 12 national security, august 2012. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking that may occur at a site. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the sites of critical objects.
A shortcoming of hazard analyses in midplate regions, be they probabilistic or. Steps in hazard assessment the process of natural hazard. Psha, seismic hazard analysis, earthquake, seismic hazard parameters. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha procedure is based on the. Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Fema 451b topic 5a handouts seismic hazard analysis 6 instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a 31 0. Seismic hazard analysis requires an assessment of earthquake hazard parameters and the future earthquake potential in a region. Global seismic hazard assessment program united nations. An ergodic assumption is commonly made in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold.
A practical probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis tool. Seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular area. Iaea safety standards seismic hazards in site evaluation. This monograph is intended as a general introduction to methods of seismic hazard and risk analysis. Seismic hazard analysis calculating the probability of earthquake ground shaking at the surface or in the bedrock beneath a site based on the location of surrounding faults.
Fema 451b topic 5a notes seismic hazard analysis 2 instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a 2 seismic hazard analysis deterministic procedures. Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with. Seismic hazard and seismic risk in the united states earthquake hazard and emergency management 45 during a specific exposure time. Test case 10 tests the computation of hazard from an area. Unified hazard tool usgs earthquake hazards program. Pdf verification of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis software. In order to improve the accessibility of seismic hazard analysis results to design engineers and public planners software tools for interogation of seismic hazard results are currently under development. Pdf seismic hazard analysis for kuala lumpur, malaysia.
An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Opensha is an opensource, javabased platform for conducting. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis recommended in this safety guide also addresses what is needed for probabilistic safety assessments psas conducted. Regression analysis derives a mean curve to predict ground motions, as a function of magnitude and distance. Peer lifelines program sponsors, which include the california department of. The seismic hazard analyses performed suggest that the pga seismic hazard averaged over the next 50 years is 4050% higher than that prior to the canterbury earthquake sequence. The map is based on the most recent usgs models for the conterminous u. Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts nuregcr6372. Introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
A sincere effort is made herein to do seismic hazard analysis for ballar dam of chattisgarh state. Overview of the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of yucca mountain ivan g. Seismic hazards can be analyzed deterministically as and when a. Rcrisis is the newest version of crisis, a worldwide and wellknown solution for performing probabilistic seismic hazard analyses psha.
Source parameter and computerassisted seismogam analysis international training course on seismology, seismic data analysis, hazard assessment and risk mitigation accra, ghana, 10. One important application of hazard analysis is the preparation of seismic. More specifically, sha states the probability that an intensity measure. Over the past 35 years, great progress has been made in the acceptance and use of. Geological survey jorge meneses, principal geotechnical engineer, rma group, inc. Usgs software tools for sitespecific ground motion hazard. Issues and alternatives zhenming wang 1 abstractseismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. The program is the result of more than 30 years of continuous innovations, developments and improvements, providing the most comprehensive, yet easy to use, software suitable for academic and commercial uses. A set of hazard maps are derived for marmara using poisson or. As an objectoriented framework, opensha can accomodate arbitrarily complex e.
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